Player & Situation Analysis
Arguably probably the most exciting english youth prospect, Jadon Sancho finds him self playing his football with Dortmund after leaving Man City from an early age. Currently aged 19, he is the most expensive share in the market, priced at £7.07 mark. (As of writing) This time last year the young english man had a price tag of £1.15. Staggering to think of. So what is it about him that justifies being the most valuable player in the index?
Well being only 19, playing 90 minutes every week for a top club in the world, champions league football, being English, AND being included in the english senior team are all the winning ingredients to be a top prospect on this platform. Matched with a great goal and assists contribution last season and having a serious impact on his team, everything points in the right direction for Sancho.
But we are missing out a key factor in price driving and stability that goes into players in the market. Dividend returns. Lets take a look at how he compares to his peers at the upper end of the market:
Dividend Returns Analysed
Jadon Sancho, despite scoring 12 goals & getting 14 assists in only 26 league starts last season has never actually won a PB dividend. With an average score of 88 pts and all time high of 267 achieved at the start of this season. Now looking at this, he is certainly a player who comes out the better end of the new revised PB Matrix so its a positive for share holders. As for media, he’s won a £0.09 media dividend per share. Leaving a total dividend yield of £0.09. Not great. Its a 1.23% yield on his price which is pathetic. Lets briefly look at his two peers of Neymar & Pogba, the 3 of which switch around the top 3 places in the market more than KBD switches the ball per game. Neymar has £0.57 PB dividends & £1.88 in media dividends for a grand total of £2.45 giving a 35% dividend yield. (Incredible) Pogba has £0.34 PB and a mouth watering £2.83 in media. For his total of £3.18 and a 44% yield. Absolutely incredible returns and statistics. Amazing. And one might say: price justifying!
So why is Sancho just as expensive, often more, with a 1% yield compared to the likes of 35% and 44%. Well Sancho is only 19. Pogba & Neymar are 26 & 27 respectfully, which is by no means old but still 7-8 years older than Sancho. So people investing in Sancho aren’t investing in him for his current dividend returns, they are investing in him for his FUTURE Dividend returns. Links for United, Liverpool and all the top clubs around europe, (& again being English) means Sancho has everything set up for him perfectly to be a future media dividend king. And if he can keep backing it up with his performances on the pitch, (which he does seem to be getting better & better as it goes along) than he won’t be shy of PB dividends either.
I am a Sancho holder, quite a big one. Im up 43% in capital appreciation [However I have topped up twice] and to be unbiased, I only see him getting more expensive & out growing Neymar & Pogba. (Hold both aswell) I cant see a single negative thing or even a significant potential risk about holding Sancho, appose to holding the other 2 that I see and are quite evident. To me a he’s a must.
Future Predictions, How will that Effect His Price & Exit Strategy
Well we hear already of constant united & Liverpool links and even Man City returns. And it is understood that a lot of the big clubs have their eyes on him. But something I always ponder on is: is playing his football in Germany the worst thing for stock? Perhaps not. Now he will earn more media dividends before, during & after a big move. But what if he does move to the premier league, the hardest league in the world, and doesn’t exactly hit the ground running and some holes in his game are highlighted & exploited. What would that do? Now this is negative way of thinking & speaking however as I constantly mention you need to have an exit strategy in your mind. Even if he is a long term hold. You need to play situations out in your head, map them to other players situations and paths and mirror what it done for their price. Every players situation and abilities are different, but roughly speaking. Its important & it works.
A change in the PB Matrix as-well as a great start and impact to the season is the real pillar of his 18% increase in the past month I personally believe however, I believe his England call-up & potential english performance will be the real reason behind the stability of his price. If he can preform on such a big stage under such a big microscope it will really re-invest investors own belief in the player & could be the start of media dividend collections. What do you think? Do you hold? Why/ why not?