A very different piece today but still of value & extreme relevance to market trading and psychology. We will be taking a look at a few clubs in this ‘series’ and will be looking at how their players, youth, performances, and much much more affect the market. We will start with Chelsea today but expect similar pieces on Man United (who are of huge relevance), PSG, Barca, Liverpool, Ajax and many others whose players, youth talent & business always seem to affect the markets more so than others.
To note: I am not a Chelsea supporter, incase you think this will affect the article, and any chelsea players I hold, will be revealed.
Chelsea are a unique case at the moment so that’s why I thought it would be interested to start with them. Under going a transfer ban this window and in the next, as well as gambling on Chelsea legend Frank Lampard to take in charge of the team as well as losing star player and key man Eden Hazard and as well as having a couple key players out with serious injuries, this season was always going to be very very strange for Chelsea. So how did and will the market react to the clubs state of affairs?
To start, the news of Eden Hazards departure from Chelsea dominated media at the beginning of the summer with Madrid wrapping up a deal fairly quickly after Chelseas Europa League success. I was a Hazard holder, & to the annoyance of most I sold at the start of his decline. I had rather decent % of capital appreciation (cap) on him and LOADS of dividends so before a potential cap loss outweighed the dividend returned I decided to cash in. (I very much plan to re-enter the Hazard share very soon, as I do believe the player, who struck some amazing PB scores last season, will dominate in Spain, its a bold prediction but it is of my own). After such drama and trading around Hazard, then came the Lampard news. Lampard gave numerous youth a chance at Derby, and placed great faith in loanee Mason Mount at Derby, (from Chelsea of course) so naturally as rumours started to matriculate chelsea youth saw a huge rise. Including Mason who traders new Frank was already very fond of. Likes of Ethan Ampadu who seems very promising & striker Tammy Abraham all seen increases dramatically.
Current Squad Stand-outs
New signing, (who was actually signed last season but loaned back) American, Christian Pulisic really excited fans and traders as a breath of fresh air coming into what looked like a very young, spineless Chelsea squad. It was something to get fans excited about & the market reacted. Pulisic had a fantastic pre season with Chelsea, cutting his holidays short to get started and assisting and scoring throughout friendlies. The ex-dortmund man is only, as I often forget, 20 years old. And seems show some incredible signs as to being a great footballer. He was trading as high as £3.15 in August as a run up to the premier league started and Chelseas Super Cup game against Liverpool. But has since seen a decrease to currently £2.83. Which indicates to me, if you are tempted with getting on board, its not the worst time.
But something to consider is how the return of the exciting and very much hyped up Callum Hudson Odoi will bode for Pulisic, especially when Frank said little over a month ago how important Callum will be for his Chelsea team and how much of an impact he will have. Hudson Odoi is currently trading at £4.77 and has seen well over the £5.20 mark when he started to appear more at the back- end of last season before his long term injury. I would very much expect him to be well clear of the £5.00 mark by the end of September, when his rumoured come back is said to be. Callum also received his senior England call up at the end of last season which does nothing but good things for young players on the Index showing that Southgate fancies the player in the white shirt and could well be a future indicator of who he will pick for his Euro 2020 squad, if fit. I am a holder as you can see & I have stuck out with the player even when he reached lows of £3.20 at a stage, with my only regret not topping up more! In my opinion, last season when I seen him starting and playing under Sarri, I wasn’t sold. He had a great few Europa League appearances but as I seen more of him I wasn’t all too excited, then when I seen him for England I was surprised at how well he did for his debut. But I was still considering taking my Profit and moving on. Looking back I was crazy. Maybe its Lampard coming in & saying how big of a role he will have that got me excited again, I don’t know but something about him now tells me he is going to be huge for Chelsea this season. With no hazard and only Tammy Abraham and Giroud as their recognised strikers I really expect Hudson Odoi to flourish with the freedom and trust he will be given. Maybe I will be wrong & my thoughts last season were right. Who knows but as I always say: he’s young, english, will be playing regular football at a top premier league club, you can’t go far wrong.
This of course leads into Chelseas striking options, as stated, they only really have youngster Tammy and French man Giroud as their recognised strikers. Now I say only because its not the most exciting thing if you’re a Chelsea fan AND if I wrote this after the first few games I’d be a lot more pessimistic about it but after finally seeing Abraham get off the mark wonderfully at the weekend scoring a brace I am excited as a holder. My thoughts are that’s exactly what he needed to get going and get a bit of confidence. The player has seen a constant rise ever since, every day, showing I am not the only thinking this [ up £0.11 alone today]. I think you can’t go far wrong if you hold him at the minute, saying that if you don’t i’d be hesitant in jumping on him. I expect a significant enough decrease if he fails to score this weekend solely based on the amount of money put into him this week alone matched with the fickleness of the market at the moment. One to be careful with. And as for Giroud, priced at £0.70 and 32 years of age, I don’t see any more value in him. He is to inconsistent. Unless he goes on a great run of goals this season I don’t see him breaking the £1 mark. That said, I still believe he will feature a fair amount for the Blues, he’s a great man to come off the bench, experienced and is capable of scoring. At 70p, maybe a shout for IPD flipping, but that’s another conversation.
In the middle of the park, one of the most hard working, under rated talented players in the world ngolo Kante is only £0.73p. Its madness explaining to an outsider that Greenwood is more value than Kante by what.. over SIX times. But its how the index works. Its very easy to come on to the platform and see Kante for 73p and think bargain but he doesnt compliment the PB matrix and is 28 now. Defensive, holding midfielders, like goal keepers have no real value in the market at the moment, something I hope does change. But as for the current moment and most certainly the future Chelseas midfielders I really like. Of course Mason Mount who is now over the £4 mark as of today is such an exciting player. Despite sitting on my watch list for ages and only getting on in the past week, I am still so excited for this player. Watching every Chelsea game so far he really does seem the real deal. Works incredibly hard and scores well on the matrix and is even now getting on the score sheet. Again talks of an England call up. As per, would explode his price. And also Ruben Loftus Cheek. Price at £2.50 and like Callum, is out with a long term injury. Now is a perfect time to get on, ( I just did this past week myself) He’s only 23, really exciting to watch and scored great last season on the PB Matrix, and will probably do better with the updated one. For me, him and mount are Chelsea much haves. Yes even Mount at his current price!
So important to keep this in mind. Is Frank just a gate keeper during the transfer ban as it would be harder to attract a higher level of manager? Or does the club, who is notorious for sacking managers quite easily, finally placing trust in him? After a year of no spending & a nice bit of Hazard cash will Frank be spending big next summer? Will this affect current youth and players? Improving them or shadowing them? So important to take into the clubs current, past and future states as it has a knock on effect for the players and their performers. Time will tell.
If you’ve skipped down to this part, as suggested if you’re short on time, hold little care towards chelsea players or simply couldn’t be bothered to read, I understand. Chelseas state of affairs pose a real challenge for the club. Un proven manager, transfer ban and loosing a star player. But for the market and traders, this isn’t a bad thing. Gives youth talent a real chance to shine, with little pressure on them as would he normally. What I mean by that, is that they haven’t spent this summer, no ones really expecting much of them in regards a title push so its much better for youth to play in contrast to coming into a team were the pressure is high to win trophies etc. Maybe Im not right at all, I have a lot of chelsea youth quite surprisingly and don’t plan and selling them any time soon. So although from an outsiders point of view you might they are a shambles, have no chance etc. This can really compliment the index. I think their defence is their biggest liability with no real ball playing defenders. I will say I like Alonso going forward and could be PB potential for the odd game in him. My predictions are Mason Mount and Loftus cheek will be the PB scorers in this team when all fully fit. And the media will bounce around mason if or when he gets the England shout depending and also Hudson Odoi when fully fit and playing.
Whats your thoughts? Are chelsea a team worth trading into? Are their youth worth a shout? Will they score on PB Matrix and earn dividends, a real market driver? Let us know. As-well as what team we should do next?
I didn’t mention midfielder Ross Barkley? Why? He puzzles me too much. One game he seems so influential, next: offers nothing. This one i’m putting to use to answer? Ross Barkley worth it or not? £1.40 is quite dear.